Luck Be a Lady (And a Mets Fan) Tonight

As we’ve now crept into July, hurtling towards the All-Star Game and therefore the midway point of the season, I thought I’d take this opportunity to check in on my beloved Mets. After the strum and drang of the past three seasons I made a promise to myself; I would not go overboard with my fandom this season. I would do my best to keep it at a reasonable level, and not let a baseball team run my life for the next six months. For the most part I feel I’ve kept good on that promise. Sure, I’m keenly aware of the team, their record, their stats and personnel moves but I’ve managed to take everything in stride. I haven’t purchase World Series tickets when they’ve been on a winning streak, and haven’t made with the gnashing of the teeth and the cursing of the gods when they’ve lost.

Now here we are on July 1st, ten games over .500, 1.5 games out of first place and (though still very early) one game up in the Wild Card standings. While still dealing with player injuries and ineffectiveness, unlike last year they’ve managed to plug those holes adequately and remain in contention. Omar Minaya said he was going to build a team built on “pitching, speed and defense” and holy fucking shit he actually did. Currently they are 7th in MLB in team ERA, 7th in fielding percentage with the 6th least amount of errors, and 2nd in the league in stolen bases.

I’ve really enjoyed watching this team play baseball this year. They’re fun to watch, are fundamentally sound and have show a knack for coming back, and not phoning it in once down by a few runs. But, for the long term success of this team, a good season by the 2010 Mets is what I feared most. Why? Because I have zero faith that Omar Minaya knows what the fuck he’s doing. I’ve seen a shift in the media tides, where the general consensus seems to be, albeit somewhat grudgingly, to give credit where credit is due when it comes to Omar. If anyone deserves credit for the 2010 Mets success (so far) it should be luck.

John Maine & Oliver Perez / Hisanori Takahashi & R.A. Dickey:

How soon we forget that it was Omar Minaya who so generously bestowed 3 years/36 million dollars on Oliver Perez two years ago despite doing nothing to deserve it. And John Maine, whether mentally or physically, has not been right since his 2007 campaign. So is it any wonder both sucked total and complete shit in 2010? Not to a normal person capable of making rational decisions based on empirical evidence. Instead of trying to bring in a middle/back end of the rotation innings eater, or a cheap arm with high upside, or try and trade for an ace Minaya decided to stand pat, sign some veterans to minor league deals, hide under some coats and hope everything would turn out okay.

Yet, lo and behold it did! I love the way both Takahashi and Dickey pitch. Dickey mixes in just enough mid-80’s fastballs with his hard knuckleball to keep hitters off balance, and Takahashi has about five different pitches he can throw for strikes at any time. Both have provided much needed innings and both have a better than 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. But you can’t tell me that two players signed to minor league deals for less than $2 million total figured into the Mets plans for 2010. Even if Minaya thought both would see major league action at some point, there’s no way he could have predicted either (not to mention both) would provide the type of stability the starting rotation so sorely needed.

Ike Davis / Mike Jacobs & Fernando Tatis Platoon:

I’ll give Omar some credit for calling on rookie Ike Davis, rather than sticking with middling veterans Jacobs and Tatis in a starting role. But did you really need to wait until two weeks into the season to make this decision? Davis tore the cover off the ball during spring training and during his brief stint in the minors in 2010. Jacobs flat out sucked during his tenure, proving himself to be the one dimensional player everyone knew he was. Tatis, while a solid bench/role player, should never have been considered for a full time job, even in a platoon. Since preventing Davis from potentially achieving super-two status (enabling him to reach arbitration one year early) was obviously not a concern with his April promotion, why even wait that long? If the goal is to field the best 25 man roster possible, the choice was clear. When Davis was promoted to the majors on April 19th the Mets were 4-8. In those eight losses they scored a rather paltry average of 3.25 runs/game. And of those eight losses, half were by one run. Davis’ bat in the lineup could have easily earned the Mets another victory or two. I know it’s a long, 162 game season but ask the 2007 and 2008 Mets how much difference one victory makes.

Chris Carter:

Again, I’ll give Omar some credit for brining up Carter and releasing Frank Catalanatto. But, again, if the point is the build the best possible team why didn’t Carter make the team out of spring training? Carter offers timely hits and power off the bench and in a spot start. By all accounts his intensity and preparedness are beloved by his teammates.

As much as I love having Chris “The Animal” Carter on the bench, do you know what the Mets gave up to get him? Billy Wagner who, in turn, netted the Red Sox a first round draft pick, and a compensation round draft pick when Atlanta signed him as a Type A free agent. Wagner didn’t fully recover from Tommy John surgery until August, when the Mets were long out of contention. Also, the Mets had paid his salary up until that point. Financially, they only had an obligation of two months left once he returned from the disabled list. It’s not as if getting Wagner’s salary off the books gave them enormous payroll flexibility. So the Mets had no financial or considerable talent gain in this deal. You tell me what’s more valuable? The 20th and 39th overall picks in the first year player draft? Or unproven role player Chris Carter?

I think that’s what bothers me the most. I could go on and on about Luis Castillo’s contract or the handling of Beltran’s knee injury but the scariest part of Minaya’s reign as GM is his complete lack of understanding of the current market. If you’re a team with not a ton of money to spend, who are you going to take a chance on? The aging veteran who’s going to command a few million dollars a year? Or the young kid down on the farm that’ll cost you the league minimum for the next three years? Look how many first and second year players are making huge impacts for their teams across the major leagues. And as we approach the trade deadline, who do you think is going to be traded for the Cliff Lee’s, Dan Haren’s and Roy Oswalt’s of the world?

Even the most casual fan can see that there’s been a major shift in baseball with a premium being placed on young talent. Prospects can either help your team for years to come, or net you that superstar you need for the stretch run. Yet the Mets refuse to pour more resources into their scouting/development department and insist on being the only major league team to follow the inane slotting system.

I really hope the Met stay in contention and make things interesting his summer, and into the fall. But if the Mets success means a contract extension for Minaya, we as fans can continue to count on luck as our biggest factor in roster building.