Normally I try and stay away from this kind of speculation when it comes to professional sports. I’m not a GM, I don’t have a business or law degree, and I’m not privy to the front office or the clubhouse. While I agree that one should retain at least a modicum of emotional distance when making business decisions, I also know that without insider knowledge of a team’s inner workings my opinions are not fully informed and my suggestions may not be realistic. Also, regardless of overwhelming fan opinion a team will still do whatever it wants no matter how stupid. Any Mets or Knicks fan can tell you that.
That said, I think all Mets fans can sense that change is coming. There have been numerous reports that Jerry Manuel’s contract will not be renewed, and that Omar Minaya will either be reassigned or fired outright as General Manager. In the wake of another disappointing season, there does seem to be an air, however slight, of optimism. With imminent change, I figured why not play fake GM? Heck, I couldn’t possibly do any worse than Minaya has the past few years.
So lets jump right in by taking a look at who, on the current roster, will be returning in an everyday role next season and identify what holes need to filled (that’s what she said).
Not Going Anywhere:
C – Josh Thole: All indications point to Thole being the Mets starting catcher next year and I think he’s earned a shot. He doesn’t have very much pop (slugging a mere .357 in 272 career plate appearances) but he makes consistent, solid contact and gets on base. I’d like to see his on base percentage a couple ticks higher (currently at .347 for the season) but he’s walked (21) about as much as he’s struck out (23) so the potential for even better plate discipline is there. Thole’s calling card has always been his bat, but I’ve been impressed by his defense and game calling abilities. He’s clearly worked hard and improved these areas of his game.
1B – Ike Davis: Meet your first baseman of the foreseeable future, Mets fans. Davis made us all believe the hype during his rookie campaign. He’s got power to spare, drives in runs and by all standard and advanced fielding metrics is a very good defensive first baseman. He definitely needs to cut down on the strikeouts (135 in 587 plate appearances) but he’s still young and learning. What I’ve found most promising about Davis is, after a hot start, he went into a bit of a slump once opposing pitchers figured him out. But over the last month or so Davis has readjusted his approach and got hot again. He’s shown the ability to adapt to the advanced scouting and higher quality major league pitching. Pencil him in for 25-30 home runs, 100+ RBI and Gold Glove defense starting as soon as next year.
SS – Jose Reyes: The Mets hold an $11 million option on Reyes for next season, after which he can become a free agent. As retarded as the Mets can be, I can’t imagine even them not picking it up. Some people (ne idiots) have suggested the Mets try and trade Reyes with the ludicrous “break up the core” argument. Reyes won’t turn 28 until June of next year. While the beginning of his career was plagued with injuries, Reyes played in 150+ games four consecutive seasons, prior to last year’s injury shortened campaign. He will finish this season with over 130 games played and over 600 plate appearances. So I don’t think his durability is a question any longer. More importantly, his offensive and defensive production would be impossible to replace in house, via trade or on the open market. Guys who rely on their speed for offense and defensive range often start to break down quicker than players with other skill sets. Being that Reyes is still only 27 years old, barring tragic injury or unforeseen diminished production, I would start working with his agents on a four year extension next year, taking him through his age 32 season.
3B – David Wright: Not much to say here; .300 BA, 30+ home runs, 100+ RBI, face of the franchise and signed for a very reasonable $14 million next year. Signed through 2012 with and option for 2013, he’s not going anywhere.
LF – Jason Bay: There’s no way around it; Bay’s season was, to put it mildly, disappointing. But I like Bay. He’s a hard working, low key guy. And his defense, supposedly the weak part of his game, was surprisingly good. I have to believe he’ll turn it around if only because he’s making $18 million each of the next three years. Even if the Mets wanted to dump him, his contract makes him untradeable.
CF – Carlos Beltran: Possibly the most polarizing figure on the roster, which is surprising considering how mild mannered he is. I, personally, am a Beltran supporter. Much like Reyes his production on both sides of the ball at one of the most demanding positions on the field is unparalleled and would be impossible to replace. He’s definitely returned to form after a slow start coming off the DL, so the reports of Beltran’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
RF – Angel Pagan: Where would the Mets have been without Pagan this year? I shudder to think how much worse they would have been. With a full, healthy season under his belt we’ve finally seen Pagan reach his full potential.
Give ‘Em the Heave-Ho:
2B – Luis Castillo: There is absolutely no way Castillo is on the opening day roster next year. Despite being healthy (or as healthy as Castillo can be) he has completely vanished in the waning month of the season. I can’t even remember the last time I saw him in the starting lineup. He’s either released or traded come Spring, with the Mets eating his salary either way.
Potential Free Agents:
With Castillo out of the picture, that leaves second base as our only need (realistically speaking) in the starting lineup. The Mets are right to give Ruben Tejada as much of a look as possible down the stretch. Ultimately I don’t think he’s there quite yet with his bat. There’s been talk of a Ruben Tejada / Daniel Murphy platoon next year but that’s a dangerous concept to rely on, considering who knows if Murphy can even play an adequate second base.
Bear in mind that the Mets have over $120 million committed to next year’s roster by my half assed calculations. This doesn’t include arbitration raises to the likes of R.A. Dickey, Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey. Despite the Wilpon’s insistence that they are not strapped for cash, all reports indicate the Mets will be spending very little money this off season. So my plan would be to acquire a cheap, league average second baseman on a one year deal. This will provide depth at the position (Tejada, Murphy, Luis Hernandez, Justin Turner, Joaquin Arias, Reese Havens) while giving prospects like Tejada, Turner and Havens more seasoning in the minor leagues. Here are some potential candidates:
1. Orlando Hudson – The Mets have coveted him for years. He signed a one year, $5 million deal with the Twins this past off season. At 32 years old, and coming off a slight off year by his standards I wonder if the Mets can’t get him for one year at less than $5 million. Despite his off year, he has provided 1.8 Wins Above Replacement on offense and saved 18 runs Above Replacement on defense.
2. Mark Ellis – The A’s hold a $6 million option on Ellis for next year. I’m not plugged into the A’s organization and am not sure if they have plans on exercising that option. The A’s are traditionally cash strapped, so you have to figure there’s a decent chance they buy him out for $500K and go with a younger, cheaper option. Though not as strong defensively as Hudson, he is still considerably above average with a solid slash line at the plate (for a second baseman) of .290/.358/.373. However, even if the A’s make him available, he could command over $5 million / year and, depending on how the market shakes out, a multi-year deal thus making him out of the Mets price range.
3. Felipe Lopez – This is probably more in the Mets wheelhouse. Lopez signed a one year, $1 million contract with the Cardinals in the off season. He’d probably sign for that much, possibly less, considering the Cardinals released him after he was late numerous times. He struggled offensively this year, but for the first time in his career so you have to believe he can turn it around at age 31. However, his struggles combined with his insubordination does raise some red flags and the Mets can ill afford another PR kerfuffle. Lopez does provide, more or less, league average defense at second so for $750K - $1 million you have to consider taking a flyer on him. Consider him a back-up plan.
Some other low cost options include Adam Kennedy and Aaron Miles, neither of which are bound to set your soul aflame. There’s a risk/reward option in a guy like Akinori Iwamura who really fell the fuck off this year, but he’s a guy you sign on a minor league deal and hope catches on in Spring Training, not someone you guarantee a starting job to. But honestly, if none of the above three are available, Plan B is to let the in-house candidates duke it out in Spring Training. They’re liable to produce just as well, if not better, than the David Eckstein’s of the world, and for less money.
Trade Bait:
As much as I support Carlos Beltran, I realize his relationship with the fans, media and team is probably irrevocably damaged. I’m sure both the Mets and Beltran will want to part ways once his contract expires after the 2011 season. There’s been some chatter about the Mets trying to trade Beltran. I’m not sure how realistic that is, but what the Mets should definitely NOT do is trade Beltran this off season. They will not get anything of value for him, and still have to pay a chunk of his remaining salary.
Instead they should simply lie in wait, and see how Beltran’s 2011 season plays out. Beltran’s September resurgence would lead you to believe he can be a presence at the plate again. The big question mark is his defense. Hopefully his knee heals enough that he can regain most of his ridiculous range in center field. If not, I would start him in right field so as to build his value as a corner outfielder. So if his offense and defense return to form, and if the Mets are not contenders next year I would be open to trading Beltran, but only if the price is right. Beltran will be 34 next year, no spring chicken but with a few good years still left, so the Mets shouldn’t expect a huge haul. Realizing they will have to pay a large chunk of his salary and contingent on Beltran rebuilding his value as a premiere outfielder, I’d pull the trigger on a deal for a young, major league or near major league starting pitcher and a solid position player prospect. Otherwise, just hold onto him and take the draft picks as I have to assume he will turn down any arbitration offer next off season so he can get the hell out of New York.
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