The Mets made it official and hired Sandy Alderson. Initially I was a little concerned when I heard he was the front runner. Although he had continued to work in baseball, he hadn’t been a General Manager since his days in Oakland in the late 80’s / early 90’s. And while those teams were great, the game has changed radically since then. My top choice was White Sox Assistant GM Rick Hahn, who is reportedly a stats guy and responsible for hammering out a lot of the finer points of all the team’s contracts.
But Alderson was himself, an early proponent of advanced statistics. He’s recruited Paul DePodesta and J.P. Riccardi to join, what is suddenly, one of the best front offices in baseball. And he has been pretty candid thus far saying the Mets, with the monies already committed to 2011 payroll, will not be big spenders in the free agent market this winter. That is certainly refreshing to hear after years of Omar Minaya’s soft shoe “Well, we’re going to pursue all avenues to make this team better.” routine. Long story short I’m cautiously optimistic.
On to what was probably the most pleasantly surprising part of the 2010 season; the starting rotation. Let’s see who’ll be back in 2011:
1. Johan Santana: What more can possibly be said about Santana? He’s hands down one of the best. His recent injury history and declining K/9 ratio is a little disconcerting. But even if his skills are declining, I’m confident he’ll continue to find a way to win and it’s not like the guy’s 42 or anything. He’s still in his prime.
2. Mike Pelfrey: Big Pelf made some pretty big strides this year. Although he may not be the Ace the Mets hoped he’d be when they drafted him out of Wichita State, he still looks like a solid number two or three starter who’s above average groundball ratio will play well with the Mets strong defense.
3. Jon Niese: Niese definitely established himself as a rotation mainstay this year. If not for a shitty September, Niese’s numbers would have looked a lot better. He was obviously fatigued down the stretch, as he pitched more innings than he ever had in thirty big league starts in 2010. He posted solid 7.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 ratios too, but did give up too many hits, averaging ten per nine innings pitched.
4. R.A. Dickey: Dickey was incredible last season, and I think it’s safe to say it wasn’t a fluke. He may not post numbers as good as he did last season (In 26 starts, 2.84 ERA, 138 ERA+, 165 hits given up in 174 IP, 1.187 WHIP) but he certainly appears to have figured out how to maximize his talents. He’s under team control for two more years, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets offer him a two year contract.
Realistically that only leaves one rotation spot open for next year.
In House Candidates: I think this option starts and ends with Dillon Gee. He looked great in five Major League starts in September. He reminds me a lot of Rick Reed. He won’t blow you away, but he can throw four pitches for strikes. He tossed 194.1 innings in total, so you have to figure you could get a full season out of him without blowing out his arm, if you go by the Verducci rule. I love Jenry Mejia’s stuff, but I think between his control and injury issues he’s not there yet. The Mets would be smart to give him a year of stars in the Minor Leagues to build arm strength and control.
Free Agents: There’s a very good chance Johan Santana will start the year on the DL. So what I’d like the Mets to do is to sign one back-end, innings eater and one risk / reward type. You can never have too much pitching, as they say, and I think it’s wise to hedge your bets between a solid yet unspectacular starter, a potentially very good but uncertain starter coming off injury, and the rookie.
Risk/Reward Guys: At the top of the list is former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. Webb, coming off major shoulder surgery, is working towards regaining arm strength and stamina so who knows how much you can realistically expect from him in 2011. But the idea of Brandon Webb behind Santana certainly is tantalizing. The problem is money. Webb is probably in line for a deal similar to last year’s Rich Harden or Ben Sheets deals; one year, incentive laden contract with a base of $7 - $10 million. I doubt the Mets will commit those kinds of dollars on a roll of the dice, not this year.
There are some other intriguing names in this bunch like Harden, Brad Penny, Vicente Padilla and Justin Duchscherer. Of this bunch, I like Duchscherer the best. He only cost the A’s $2 million last year. On the con side Oakland received a scant five start return on their investment. On the plus side this devalues Duchscherer even more heading into the winter. Also, when healthy, he’s proven very effective. To me he’s the perfect cross-section of risk / reward at a price the Mets can live with.
Reliable Innings Eaters: I would like to see the Mets go after one of Hiroki Kuroda, John Garland or Jake Westbrook. Kuroda, heading into his age 36 season next year, has been quietly solid for the Dodgers. He’s coming off his best season (31 starts, 196.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 159 K, 1.161 WHIP) and would be a nice addition for not a ton of cash.
Garland had a nice resurgence in 2010 with the Padres, going 14-12 with a 3.47 ERA in exactly 200 IP. He was helped by a lower than average BAbip (.268) and the cavernous confines of Petco Park, but the Mets are solid defensively and Garland would fit in nicely in equally pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
Westbrook, predictably, benefitted from his mid-season to the National League. The Cardinals seem to have the inside track on re-signing him for next year, but his crazy 1.89 GB/FB ratio would play extremely well in Citi Field.
It’d be even better if they could get one of them on a one year deal, but I’d settle for 2 years in the $10-$12 million range. That’s still an affordable price and a short team deal. Worst comes to worst, if the rotation gets crowded, this type of pitcher (and at that price) is always attractive to contending teams at the trade deadline. So you’d probably get a higher-than-average return in any deal.
The Scrap Heap: Again, you can never have too much pitching, and the Mets would be wise to sign a couple guys with Major League experience to Minor League deals to fight for a job in Spring Training, or to keep down on the farm in case of injury. Some interesting Non-Tender candidates include Brian Bannister, Boof Bonser, Andrew Miller, and Sergio Mitre. Also, potential free agent reclamation projects include Nate Robertson, Ian Snell, and Micah Owings.
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